BOTTOM LINE
Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)
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Danger Rose Tutorial |
A MODERATE danger exists in the Wasatch.
Human triggered avalanches remain possible. The danger is most
pronounced in the steep high northerly and westerly wind loaded terrain
and in the shady mid-elevations where we have reactive layers of
surface hoar. Careful routefinding and terrain management is required.
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CURRENT CONDITIONS
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A
strong weather system diving to the south will allow for some spillover
through the northern Wasatch. We currently have overcast skies and
light snow falling in the mountains. Temperatures are in the low 20s.
Yesterday’s westerly winds backed southwesterly and have continued
backing to the southeast, where they’ve been blowing 15-20mph - gusting
into the 30s - along the high exposed ridgelines. Elsewhere winds are
mostly calm.
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RECENT ACTIVITY
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·
It was the third skier on the slab that triggered the 12” deep and 20’
slab in the upper part of the Y Couloir. It ran 200’ down the chute
with no one reportedly caught.
· A ski cut released an 18” deep and 20’ wide pocket in American Fork canyon.
· Other reports of minor wet and dry sluffing in the steepest terrain.
More details, pics, and more can be found in the upper left hand corner of the page under Current Conditions.
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THREAT #1
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| WHERE |
PROBABILITY |
SIZE |
TREND |
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Over the next 24 hours. |
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Surface Hoar and the accompanying facets are like a snake in the grass.
Here’s the scenario: a skier ticks off the 50 degree big bold
line/couloir/face at 11,000’ with manageable soft snow issues. No
problem. He lets his guard down in the lower angle 33 degree glade exit
and triggers the 2’ deep 100’ wide avalanche down and gets wrapped
around a tree - or worse. The fragile feathers on Feb 10th were
immediately insulated by a few inches of
low density snow, protecting them from wind and sun and they’ve been a
player ever since. Surface Hoar is typically found in the mid to low
elevations where it’s more protected, with a cooler, humid atmosphere
during times of high pressure. It’s why the Coalpit Headwall is skiied
without incident and why typically perceived “safe” lower angle terrain
like Soldier Fork, the Gobbler's Shoulder, and Lamb's is not. Not that
I’m necessarily advocating a conga line
into the Heart of Darkness.
These may still be triggered
– even remotely - up to 2’ deep and 150’ wide, primarily on northwest
through northeast facing slopes between 7000’ and 9000’. Slope angles
may be as low as 28-30 degrees. Big Cottonwood canyon seems to be the
loose north/south boundary for the action. Outliers, of course, remain.
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THREAT #2
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| WHERE |
PROBABILITY |
SIZE |
TREND |
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Over the next 24 hours. |
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The catch-all for lingering wind slabs and the potential for loose snow avalanches.
Very
isolated soft slabs from the Saturday/Sunday southeasterly winds remain
in the open steep terrain in the alpine zone. We’ll see some snow today
with the storm diving south – if the 2-5” verify, anticipate some
sluffing in the steepest terrain.
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MOUNTAIN WEATHER
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Another
storm, another storm that dives south. We’ll have mostly cloudy to
overcast skies and perhaps 2-5” today. Perhaps another 2-5” tonight.
Temps will be in the mid 20s, dropping to near 10 degrees by tomorrow
afternoon. (These temps at 10,000’) The winds will start to become
light and variable until a weak frontal boundary this afternoon where
they veer northwesterly. A weak system follows for Wednesday into
Wednesday night, with ridging lined up for
Thursday/Friday.
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